India, once synonymous with rapid population growth, is now witnessing a declining birth rate. According to the United Nations, the country’s fertility rate will fall to 2 children per woman in 2024, a sharp decline from 6.2 in 1950. Although this development is in line with global trends, it creates both opportunities and difficulties for our country. Here are all the details we need on the causes, effects and national implications of this.
Why are birth rates falling?
Several factors contribute to the declining birth rate in India:
- Urbanization and modern lifestyles: Due to better access to education, careers and health care, urban women often choose smaller families.
- Late marriages, combined with an emphasis on job development, shorten the reproductive period.
- Family planning and awareness: Improved access to contraception and family planning services empowers couples to decide their family size.
- Economic pressures: The rising cost of living, especially in cities, makes raising multiple children financially challenging.
This pattern is not unique to India, countries as diverse as Japan and South Korea are already dealing with even lower birth rates, with global implications.
Positive effect: better allocation of resources and standard of living
Declining birth rates aren’t all doom and gloom. It can only have some positive aspects associated with it:
- Improved living standards: With fewer dependents, families can have better access to quality education, healthcare and housing.
- Sustainable resource management: Slower population growth reduces pressure on natural resources such as water, land and energy.
- Focus on women’s empowerment: Smaller families can give women more opportunities for education and careers.
These shifts could position India as a country with increased productivity and quality of life.
Negative consequences: economic and demographic problems
Declining fertility has benefits, but it can also cause serious problems, such as:
- Aging population: India’s elderly population is expected to increase significantly by 2050, which will eventually put a strain on healthcare facilities.
- Labor shortages: Economic growth can be hampered by fewer workers, especially in labor-intensive industries.
- Declining Youth: India’s large under-25 population now has a demographic dividend. Over time, this advantage may be eroded by falling fertility rates.
These problems are similar to those in countries like Japan, where economic stagnation is the result of an aging population.
How will it affect India’s future?
Declining birth rates in India will change the socio-economic landscape of the country:
- The demand for geriatric care will increase as the elderly population grows.
- With fewer children, there is an opportunity to invest more in quality education and vocational training for young people.
- Urban areas may adapt better thanks to existing health care and infrastructure, but rural areas may struggle with an aging population.
Policymakers must balance these shifts by fostering innovation and strengthening safety nets.
By 2050, the global fertility rate is expected to fall from 2.3 in 2021 to 1.8. However, low-income countries are expected to continue to perform higher, underscoring the stark disparity.
